![]() While it is difficult to attribute any specific storm to the effects of a warming climate 4, 8, the extremely active 2017 hurricane season in the North Atlantic, with Harvey in Texas and Irma and María in the Caribbean and Florida, portends some of the projected shifts in hurricane regimes under a warming climate. Models predict that by 2100 in the North Atlantic basin, maximum sustained hurricane wind speeds will increase by 6–15%, coupled with increases of 20% in precipitation within 100 km of the storm center 7. Climate warming has also led to higher atmosphere moisture content, which is expected to increase tropical-cyclone rainfall rates 6. Since these storms derive their energy from ocean heat, and sea surface temperatures have increased in most regions of tropical-cyclone formation during the past decades, maximum wind speeds are projected to rise and storms to intensify 2, with some of the most significant increases in the North Atlantic 3, 4, 5. A better understanding of risk factors associated with tree species susceptibility to severe storms is key to predicting the future of forest ecosystems under climate warming.Ĭyclonic storms (hurricanes, cyclones, and typhoons) represent the dominant natural disturbance in coastal tropical forests across the Caribbean, the Indian subcontinent, Southeast Asia, Indo-Malaysia, and northern Australia 1. Tree inventories and a wind exposure model allow us to attribute these differences in impacts to storm meteorology. Species with high density wood were resistant to uprooting, hurricane-induced mortality, and were protected from breakage during Hugo but not María. María killed twice as many trees as Hugo, and for all but two species, broke 2- to 12-fold more stems than the other two storms. ![]() ![]() Here we compare tree damage data collected in the same forest in Puerto Rico after Hurricanes Hugo (1989, category 3), Georges (1998, category 3), and María (2017, category 4). One key challenge to predicting how more intense storms will influence these ecosystems is to attribute impacts specifically to storm meteorology rather than differences in forest characteristics. You can track the hurricane season over at our dedicated page and all the graphics in this article will update automatically, so stay tuned.Tropical cyclones are expected to intensify under a warming climate, with uncertain effects on tropical forests. the season may not be over, as meteorologists warn that tropical waters remain sufficiently warm to support further hurricane formations and the season still has some weeks to run. It’s expected that even if hurricane Maria takes more of a track towards the U.S., it would only be a glancing blow on the North Carolina coastline, but the NHC says to expect some tropical storm conditions, including a risk of coastal inundation through flooding.įurther shifts west in the forecast path of hurricane Maria could amplify the coastal impacts that will be felt, raising the chances of some impacts to insurance or reinsurance providers.Īt this time the financial cost of hurricane Maria remains unclear, but it is expected that the insurance and reinsurance industry will pay a number of billions of dollars for the damage to Puerto Rico alone, so raising the 2017 hurricane season toll. Hurricane Maria tropical storm force winds forecast ![]()
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